What the media missed…Slattery drops 4% in latest poll
Cooper and Secrest Associates, a favorite polling firm of the Kansas Democrats and Sebelius in particular, released a poll this week which they say highlights ‘trouble’ for the Roberts campaign. The Kansas ‘mainstream’ media was quick to jump on board in repeating their campaign line. (Here, here, and here)
A biased poll with biased questions
What’s unfortunate about the Slattery poll is not only that the media has picked up the campaign line and run with it, but that the campaign never released the actual polling data…they only released a poll summary.
What’s even more telling about how this campaign is going to be treated by the Kansas media is their blatant disregard for the bias of the polling firm and their laziness in getting the whole truth.
The press release on the Slattery campaign website is a word for word repeat of the release from Cooper and Secrest…with one little exception.
Cooper and Secrest is a national Democratic polling firm. CSA has helped elect/reelect over 350 members of Congress including in Kansas Jim Slattery, Dennis Moore and Nancy Boyda (independent expenditure.) CSA has helped to elect candidates to statewide office throughout the region and nation, including Governor Kathleen Sebelius in 1994 (Insurance Commissioner), 1998 (reelected), 2002 (Governor) and 2006 (reelected).
Isn’t it funny how the media has presented an internal poll done by a firm that identifies itself as a force helping elect Democrats as independent and trustworthy?
Even though the firm hasn’t released the actual polling data (with good reason I’m sure) they did identify some of the questions posed to voters in the released summary.
“Pat Roberts has been a part of the government in Washington D.C. almost 40 years; it’s time for a change and to give someone with new ideas a chance”.
How a respondent will answer a poll question is directly related to how the question is asked. Many times the only information a respondent will have in answering the question was the information given to them in the question.
So, would that question have been answered differently if it included this information: that Jim Slattery has been a part of the Washington establishment since 1985 and after being rejected by the people of Kansas by a nearly 2-1 margin in 1994, decided to make his millions as a Washington lobbyist. And after having made millions of dollars as a lobbyist in Washington D.C., Slattery has now decided that the timing is right for him to return to Kansas as a Washington carpetbagger to gain more power and influence for his clients?
I doubt that’s the kind of question Cooper and Secrest was asking.
A comparison of polls
Another fly in the ointment for the Slattery campaign was their comparison of the Cooper and Secrest poll to a May 13, 2008 poll done by Rasmussen Reports. A true comparison of the two can’t really be done for several reasons, including that the questions asked by the firms would be different and therefore would elicit different responses. And as the summary released by the Slattery campaign shows, their questions were hardly the kind Rasmussen was asking.
However, for the sake of argument (and to show that Slattery has manipulated the data and the Kansas media ignored it) let’s go ahead and compare the two as if they were equal.
The May 13 Rasmussen poll found Roberts ahead of Slattery 52% to 40%, a margin of 12 points. The May 13 poll had a margin of error of 4.5% points. The Slattery poll, conducted June 5, shows a Roberts margin of win of…you guessed it…12% points, Roberts ahead 48% to Slattery’s 36%. That poll had an apparent margin of error of 3.5%.
Now, how is it that Roberts AND Slattery both dropped four percentage points within little under a month? Is it because Roberts is so unpopular? If so, why did Slattery also drop four percentage points?
Is it possible that when Rasmussen said there was a margin of error of 4.5% they meant it? Probably!
In what universe does a challenger losing popularity mean he’s coming on strong against the incumbent? In Kansas, that’s where.
A true comparison
A June 11 Rasmussen poll shows a true comparison of the race over about a one month period. Conducted by the same firm, this poll gives us a clearer view of how the race is actually shaping up.
The June 11 poll shows Roberts still ahead of Slattery 48% to 39%, a 9 point difference.
Many conventional political observers would note the small drop in Roberts numbers. In fact, I’m surprised that Slattery’s campaign only got this information into the Topeka Capital-Journal article. More than likely, because the June 11 poll was conducted 6 days after their own, they weren’t able to get coverage of it since they had already gotten mileage out of their own manipulated poll.
What’s interesting is that Slattery’s numbers also dropped in this poll by a point. Why is that significant? Because the poll has a margin of error of 4.5%, which could well explain Roberts drop. If it doesn’t, how does the Slattery campaign explain the drop in his numbers, including the four point drop shown by his own biased polling group?
What’s also interesting to note is that Roberts favorable percentage was unchanged at 60% from May 13 to June 11. Slattery’s was also unchanged at 48%. And as noted by the Slattery campaign, anyone polling below 50% is very vulnerable.
How can Roberts numbers drop by four percent but his favorability stay the same?
Margin of error, that’s how.
What the mainstream media didn’t tell you
Sebelius’ approval ratings dropped by four percentage points from 56% to 52%. The exact same drop as Roberts, although I didn’t hear anything about this in the press.
If Sebelius is selected as Obama’s running-mate, a full 35% of Kansas voters would be LESS likely to vote for the pair than if she isn’t selected. That’s in comparison to only 28% of Kansas voters that would be MORE likely to vote for Obama if Sebelius is selected. Just to jog everybody’s memory, the margin of error was 4.5%…so it’s safe to say if Obama wants to win Kansas, Sebelius shouldn’t be his pick.
A November 28, 2007 poll found that 64% of Kansas voters favor having the last say on any tax increases. That same poll found that 85% of Kansans opposed drivers licenses for illegal immigrants, a proposal the Sebelius administration tried to pass several years ago.
And 60% of Kansas voters believe intelligent design should be taught alongside evolution in Kansas classrooms, as opposed to 23% who oppose it.
All major headlines…all ignored by the Kansas ‘mainstream’ media.
What it all means
In the end, all the poll shows is that not only does the Slattery campaign have a direct line with the KDP even before the primary election is over, but that they also have a direct line with the Kansas ‘mainstream’ media. Their polling numbers were repeated without a second thought by the media…and definitely without a reporter asking a simple question like, “Why did your poll numbers also drop by 4%?”
The results of the poll should mean very little to the Roberts campaign. How the poll was treated by the press however, should be very noteworthy.
The Kansas media is invested in making this race look competitive even though it’s not. The Slattery campaign has learned well from Sebelius/Tiller/Morrison that if you manipulate the facts and tell a lie long enough, eventually it’ll be taken as unquestionable truth by the Kansas media.
If he can get the newspapers to treat the race as competitive even though it’s not, it’ll eventually be viewed that way by the voters…even though nothing could be farther from the truth.
It’s the same Sebelius/Tiller/Morrison song with a different Slattery verse.
Clearly knowing the strategy Slattery is going to use, will Republicans finally respond? Will we finally shut down the KDP lies? It’s a large task, I know, but one that must be done.
Once, shame on you. Twice, shame on me.